The Failed Attempt to Host UN Climate Summit Appears Chaotic – But It Could Actually Be the Optimal Outcome Possible

Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the top if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.