Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.