‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's homes.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of kitchen fuel are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply cannot be found," says a official of the a major restaurant body.

Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the south. People are adopting solid fuels and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."

Regional Impact

In a financial hub, accounts say up to a significant portion of eateries are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have shrunk with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no other dishes - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are scrambling to adapt. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are fluctuating as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Official Position

Yet, the officials maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and officials say cylinders are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the regional hostilities affect energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now largely blocked by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about a significant margin. Business-grade fuel is being prioritised for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been sparked by false reports. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the text reads.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be overstated.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around half of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.

Based on vessel tracking and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The real vulnerability is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative states exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.